Numb3rs (2005–2010): Season 3, Episode 8 - Hardball - full transcript
The death of a minor league player leads to a math prodigy and stirs old feelings for Don.
(rock music playing)
♪ Tonight's your big night ♪
♪ And no one here can beat you ♪
♪ When you swing
for the big lights ♪
Strike!
♪ You see the crowd
erupt to meet you ♪
♪ Yeah, you're gonna
take bare hands ♪
♪ You're gonna
hit that fast one ♪
♪ You're gonna take bare hands ♪
♪ You're gonna
hit that homerun ♪
♪ 'Cause it's not enough
to feel when I feel it gone ♪
♪ Yeah, it's gone, gone,
gone, gone, gone, gone... ♪
(music fades)
Way to go, Vick. All right.
Foul ball!
Johnston's looking strong.
Yeah, says it's a new
conditioning program.
Well, if he keeps it up,
he'll be batting cleanup again
for the big club in April.
Oh, yeah.
Safe!
Taking a nap, Vick?
Hey.
Hey, we need some help here!
When we opened his
locker and saw the vials,
we called LAPD.
MEGAN: That's very
civic-minded of you.
Unless, of course,
this has more to do with
the federal grand jury probe
into baseball doping.
I don't want anyone here accused
of hiding anything
from the grand jury.
And not from the league either.
Oh, yeah? You
know he was juicing?
No. Well, he had put
on a bit of muscle lately.
Vick used that
to track his stats.
He made video
recordings of his swing.
Mm-hmm.
Vick Johnston.
He was drafted by the
Oakland A's at age 18.
For six years, he was one
of the A.L.'s top sluggers.
And then, for the
next two years,
he was on and off the DL.
Finally sent him back
down to the minors.
According to the coach,
this was supposed
to be his comeback season.
He was determined
to make it back
to the bigs.
So we found these e-mails
on his laptop.
Oh, yeah?
We know where they're from?
No. Not yet. So far,
tracing the source
has been a dead end,
but they seem to say
that they know he was juicing,
and it could, quote/unquote,
"ruin your career."
So what? Blackmail?
What's the file attachment?
That's why you're here.
This math right here, they say,
proves that he was using.
This is advanced
statistical baseball
analysis. This is...
All right. What?
Sabermetrics. Yeah.
Baseball math?
That's right. And this
is way advanced. I mean,
this is not the kind of stuff
you're going to find in the box
scores of the Sporting News,
you know, I'll tell you that.
Any way any of that could
spot drug use? I don't know.
I mean, I'm going
to have to figure out
what these abbreviations
and notations mean.
That's not standard math stuff?
Well, when mathematicians
create new types of analyses,
they often devise
their own notational shorthand.
But I love doing research.
I mean, maybe I'll find
somebody who knows this field.
Well, the death of baseball
player Vick Johnston
was the result of a massive
hemorrhage in the brain.
He had a stroke?
From the damage to the vessels,
his blood pressure
must have skyrocketed.
Can steroids cause that?
Normally, no,
but here's the thing.
Johnston had vials
containing a designer steroid:
Thoracyclene.
Most contain
Thoracyclene in a form
that's safe to
inject, but this vial
holds a concentration
that's 30 times greater.
This strength would
cause a catastrophic rise
in blood pressure.
This was an accidental
overdose? No way.
Thoracyclene is never produced
or distributed at this strength.
This vial was
specially prepared.
So it was intended to be lethal?
It's hard to see
another purpose.
So we're looking at murder.
Somebody gave Vick Johnston
a lethal dose of steroids.
So they had to have access to
his locker and the Thoracyclene.
Maybe the drug company slipped
the tainted vial into the supply.
So that was the lab.
They said they're going
to need more time to
identify the manufacturer
of the steroid.
All right. So, I
mean, the question is,
why this guy Vick Johnston?
Let's start with
the wife... Kelly.
Not bad. Yeah. Former model.
Only she's been married
for eight years, and her kids
are five and two. Did Charlie
get a handle on these equations?
I mean, apparently,
he knows a guy.
Okay, Waldie, come on.
Right down the old pipe!
Nice pitch.
Yeah. We're just conducting
a little hands-on study
of the physical properties
of the classic curveball.
You know, Newton himself
was interested in curveballs.
I mean, clearly, baseball wasn't
invented in his day, but he was
fascinated with the way a
ball can curve through air.
And who wouldn't be?
It's all fluid dynamics.
Oh, yeah. See, air sticks
to the surface of the ball,
so, when the
pitcher puts spin on it,
pressure builds up on one
side and decreases on the other,
and that imbalance,
and the ball curves.
You know, hitting
that pitch is one
the hardest feats
in all of sports.
But, Charles, when you called,
I think your question had
more to do with statistics.
Yeah. Let me show you guys
what I'm looking at here.
As you see, Dr. Waldie,
this is high-level sabermetrics,
but I just don't know
what some of these symbols mean.
And you know that I won the
Faculty Fantasy Baseball League
two years in a row.
I do. And since fantasy
baseball is based on statistics,
I figured you'd be
into sabermetrics.
Oh, absolutely.
It's the only way
to pick a winning fantasy team.
How much of our school's
supercomputer time
is given over to this crunching
of baseball stats?
I'll never tell.
This stuff is pretty wild.
Very cool changepoint detection.
Do you recognize the person
who might have done this work?
Give me a little time.
If this person is active
in fantasy baseball
or sabermetrics, I'll find
somebody who knows who he is.
Good.
MEGAN: He said, um...
people wanted to use him?
Vick's been under
pressure to win all his life.
They were all after
a piece of him...
Coaches, owners, fans.
Was he particularly close to
anyone in the organization?
No. Coaches and
the other players
didn't give a damn about him.
Only what he could
do for the team.
The only person that
really cared about him
was his agent, Richard Clast.
Yeah, Vick trusted him.
Said he wasn't looking
for a quick buck.
He was thinking long-term.
And what were Vick's prospects?
This was the last
year on his contract.
No other teams were interested
in picking him up
because he hurt
his shoulder, plus
the two knee surgeries.
He needed to get
his game back up.
He said the money he made now
would need to last
us the next 40 years.
Was there anyone that
would have wanted to hurt him?
Did he have any enemies?
No one stood to gain if he died.
Vick was only valuable
if he was playing ball.
Do you know where
he got the drugs?
Ask his coaches.
To them,
he was just a
piece of equipment.
We don't give them steroids,
and we don't tell them
what drugs to take.
But if they use, you benefit.
These are grown men.
They make their own choices.
And, if they don't get caught
or busted, you turn a blind eye.
We don't test players
unless the league says
we have some reason to.
Otherwise, we try not
to get into hypotheticals.
Which is never.
Even when a guy who
usually benches 225
is suddenly pushing 350.
The team screwed Vick.
He gives them six great years,
he plays through
an injured shoulder
'cause they need
him for a stretch drive,
then he ends up
on the disabled list.
I understand he was
working very hard
to get back in the majors?
Yeah. He would
have made it, too.
These are good. Thank you.
Vick was the real deal.
Great guy, and a
great baseball player.
Did you know he
was taking steroids?
(sighs)
He said it was just until he
could get his numbers back up.
Thank you.
Most players use now and again.
I'd say, at any given time,
25% of them.
This was about
Vick's next contract.
It was now or never.
Thank you. Some would say
that there is life
after baseball.
Really? What
were Vick's options?
He was drafted
out of high school.
It wasn't like he had another
career he could fall back on.
He'd be lucky to
get a job making
33K a year coaching
some JC team.
You met his wife.
Think she was going
to stick around for that?
Hey, can you just
give me one second?
I'll be right with you.
Great.
What about his kids?
They worshiped their
baseball hero father.
You think they're going to look
up to some used car salesman?
I don't know. I thought
the wife really seemed
to care about him.
Well, I might be cynical,
but I've seen an
awful lot of wives
move on after the
baseball money dries up.
And the agents?
It's my job to take
care of my clients,
to keep them playing
and making money
as long as they can.
Obviously, I have to care
about their health and well-being.
But with Vick, it was different.
He was actually one
of my best friends.
Professor Waldie
sent out queries,
asking fantasy league players
if they've seen similar work
and this is what we got back.
Hmm. Where'd this come from?
It's for real stats fanatics.
Well, just looking at it, I mean
it's gotta be the same guy.
Right? The
abbreviations are identical.
Only here, he explains
what they stand for.
DB... Distance Batted.
EJ... Elevation of Trajectory.
TB... Thrown Bats.
Thrown Bats? Who is this guy?
Oswald Kittner. He plays in 16
high-stakes fantasy leagues.
Kittner. Okay. I'm
gonna go tell the FBI.
Now that I know what
these abbreviations mean,
I may be able to determine
whether this math really
does reveal drug use.
So, thank you, gentlemen.
Someone gave Kittner's
apartment a going over.
We didn't find the computer.
Well, has he shown up
anywhere? At work? Anything?
He's unemployed.
We got a 25-year-old
high school dropout
with no bank accounts,
no car, no criminal record.
Super, neighbors, no one's
seen him for a couple of days.
Might be a
blackmailer, but if not,
his works' definitely
involved somehow.
Incredible. This Kittner person
has basically reinvented
the Shiryayev-Roberts
changepoint detection
procedure to pinpoint steroid use.
And without the
need for medical tests.
I mean, this could
have major ramifications.
Yeah, right, 'cause
there's no way
to test for drugs like
Thoracyclene and THG.
Once they're metabolized in
the body, they're undetectable.
Yeah, the wonders
of sabermetrics.
It really is a powerful
form of analysis in baseball.
The physical nature of
the game involves chance,
so the difference
between a hit and an out
could be millimeters
or milliseconds,
So, when you have athletic
situations involving chance
repeated over and over
again, a statistical analysis
can isolate and reveal
human performance.
Well, you know,
it wouldn't be the first time
math revealed a surprising
truth about this sport.
In a 1993 article in The
American Statistician,
J. Bennett, using sabermetrics,
analyzed Shoeless
Joe Jackson's career.
He was able to prove that
Jackson played up
to his full potential
in every one of the 1919
Black Sox series.
So, even though he was accused
of throwing the whole series,
Jackson was completely
innocent, wasn't he?
That's right.
Math restored a man's good name
and reputation after 70 years.
I find that rather beautiful.
But, you know, this
doesn't clear the player
of cheating; it rather
does just the opposite.
I know.
So, to test if it works,
I gathered stats from
players generally believed
to have used steroids
and ran them through
Kittner's analysis.
Huh.
What did you find?
His work
seems to be quite accurate.
20 minutes ago, I
was on the couch
watching Blazing Saddles
in my pajamas.
This better be good.
It's better than good.
The red cowgirl PJs?
MEGAN: Mm-hmm.
Okay.
Okay, uh...
So Kittner's equations work.
They identify when
a player is using
perfomance-enhancement drugs.
All right, so, even if people
thought Johnston was using...
They couldn't prove it, and
now they can with Kittner's
and Kittner could probably
even be blackmailing him.
That's right, and
when Charles told me
that this Kittner person
had dropped out of sight,
it got me to thinking,
displaced people
will be drawn to places
that meet essential needs.
If you're tired, you
need a place to lie down.
If you're thirsty, you
need a source of water,
And if you play
fantasy baseball,
you need the Internet.
LARRY: And of special note here:
Tomorrow is the deadline
for the winter fantasy draft.
So Kittner needs
to plug in his laptop.
Yeah, what's...? That's
a downtown address?
Yeah, that's Little Tokyo.
They have cyber
cafés in the area.
LARRY: Well, fortunately,
human geography
is much less immense
than that of the cosmos.
COLBY: You know what this
place kind of reminds me of?
Let me guess. Bladerunner.
Yeah. Exactly.
How do you think
Ridley Scott knows
what the future
is gonna look like?
No idea,
but Daryl Hannah made
one kick-ass cyborg.
Is that...? Oswald Kittner?
FBI. Come here.
Come here!
Hey! Whoa!
Out of the way. Don't move!
Go around and cut
him off on the other side.
Got it.
My bad! Sorry!
Up!
Hey.
Was that really necessary?
Yeah, it is when you run.
Hands behind your back!
Hey, well, wait.
Are you really FBI?
Yeah, for real.
Well, at the risk of
me getting beat up,
uh, can I ask what
you're arresting me for?
In your case,
skateboarding is a crime.
So before you stick
me on the next plane
down to Guantanamo, can I
exercise some legal rights?
What, uh, what is
this supposed to be?
E-mails you sent
to Vick Johnston.
What? No way.
Come on, Oswald, I talked
to a lot of smart people.
They all know your work.
Well, they're blowing
smoke up your skirt.
If you were wearing a skirt.
Anyway,
I-I have no idea what
this is supposed to be.
Huh.
Well, then, I'll have to ask you
the classic... if you didn't do
anything wrong, why'd you run?
Because last week I came home
and two guys were
tearing up my apartment.
So I got the hell out of there.
Your beef monkeys
come at me on the street.
I'm not gonna wait around
to see if they're legit.
Do you know who broke
into your apartment or why?
Well, I win a lot at
fantasy baseball.
I-I just assumed somebody was
trying to sneak a
peek at my research.
Well, it must be a pretty
cutthroat game
of fantasy baseball
Actually, it is.
One of the leagues I play
in, winner gets 15 grand.
15 grand inspires
a little B&E, so...
me and my laptop
went off the grid.
This is Dr. Charles Epps.
He's a professor of mathematics
up at CalSci.
Him?
Yeah. Him.
Well, then, maybe he can explain
all this stuff to you, 'cause
all these, these numbers,
I-I, it's over my head.
It's funny. I don't think it is.
It's oddly similar
to this work,
which you posted
on a baseball stats Web site
under your own name.
He's the only person
using these abbreviations,
and it works.
His analysis
accurately spots steroid use.
Good Will Hunting.
Yeah, you got
me, all right? Yeah,
this is my work, and that is
exactly what it does, but,
I never e-mailed
it to Vick Johnston.
I never showed this to anybody.
Why? Why didn't you?
It's a significant
statistical breakthrough.
It's a significant advantage
in fantasy baseball...
If nobody else knows about it.
Tech went through his laptop.
It's not the source
of the e-mails
that Johnston received.
Yeah, see, I mean,
I don't see a motive.
I mean, even if he
was blackmailing him.
Which I doubt. He
was genuinely surprised
to see his work
on those e-mails.
Yeah, but what about the
break-in at the apartment?
It could be they were
after his steroid analysis.
That still doesn't
tell us who gave
Vick Johnston a lethal dose
of Thoracyclene, though.
We know yet where
they were manufactured?
No, still waiting. All right.
We just gotta get
a handle on this kid.
You know, I don't see him
opening up to any of us,
but... he might
with someone else.
Um... Dr. Epps, I
got your message.
Yeah, how you doing, Oswald?
Why don't you
follow me in my office.
Yeah. All right.
So, you know,
I wasn't really sure
that your attorney would
tell you that I called.
Oh, yeah. No, he doesn't
want me talking to you
He thinks you're just gathering
information for the FBI.
Yeah, well... he's right.
But the FBI just wants to know
who knows about your work.
That's all.
Well, I mean, like
I already told them,
nobody else knows.
There is another reason
I wanted to talk to you.
Um, your analysis
is amazing.
Really.
It's deep.
It's deep?
(laughs)
Wow. Um...
Deep's good, right?
Deep... yeah, complex.
Elegant, yeah.
That's, well... I guess
you would know.
Um...
This stuff is all
calculus, right?
Yeah. Guess you studied
calculus in high school, right?
Oh, no, no, we didn't
have it in my school.
No, I learned from,
like, library books,
uh, stuff other
fantasy leaguers did.
So you're self-taught?
I guess so.
That's qu... that's quite
an accomplishment. Um...
You ever think about
coming to a place like this
to actually study math?
Well, yeah, but...
I mean, dude,
I don't even have a G.E.D.
Dude, you don't even need one.
No, seriously, you
could get admitted
on the strength
of your work alone.
You should at least consider
publishing your findings.
Oh, hell, no. I gotta
keep my best stuff secret.
I mean, that's how I win.
Science is about
sharing knowledge.
One more reason I'm not
a scientist. Yeah, you are.
You come up with
theories, you test them,
you make new findings.
Well, maybe I'll have
to dust off a shelf
for my Nobel Prize.
(chuckles)
Hi. Oh, hey, Pop.
You know where Charlie is?
Yeah, he's in school.
Oh, listen, I had two meetings
cancel on me this afternoon.
Yeah. You want to play?
Yeah, I wish. I can't.
I-I gotta, I gotta
deal with this case.
Oh, yeah.
The ballplayer.
Yeah.
It's very sad, isn't it?
He left a wife, two kids.
You have any
idea who killed him?
No, I can't figure out a motive.
Maybe blackmail, but...
the thing is, blackmailers
rarely kill, so...
What?
Hmm?
What are you doing?
Nothing. I just...
My last year with the
Rangers, I hit .228 with 36 RBIs.
With steroids, I would
have hit .260 with 50 ribbies.
That's what my backup
did. The guy winds up
in the majors, you know?
Uh, that would be cheating.
Yeah, I mean, is it cheating
if everyone does it? Yes.
We all give up things, Donny.
Yeah?
What'd you give up?
I don't know. I...
One day I was
backpacking around Europe,
no plans, no worries,
all the freedom in the world.
Next thing you
know, I got a family
and a mortgage and two
weeks vacation every year.
You regret any of it?
No.
But I do miss the
things I gave up for them.
All right.
So tell Chuck I'm
looking for him.
Play well.
Hit 'em long.
Will do.
KITTNER: Fantasy
leagues are competitive.
I figured if I could
come up with a way
to spot drug use in players,
my trades and drafts
would be that much better.
How did you figure that?
Um, players that are
juicing are more likely
to get injured mid-season.
Stats back it up.
And you're sure you didn't
tell anybody about your work?
Not even my best friends.
I mean, I compete
against them, you know?
You didn't even hint that
specific players were doping?
Players that nobody
else knew that about?
Oh, man.
Did Colby get that report back?
Don! Megan!
Hey, Oswald thinks he knows
who sent the e-mails to Johnston.
You said you didn't
tell anyone. No, I didn't,
but I got into an argument
with my friend Chris Bronmiller.
Huge fan of Vick Johnston's.
Oh, and you told him that
his hero was using steroids?
Does he have
access to your work?
Well, we hang out a lot,
and I always leave
my laptop around.
(pounding on door)
Chris Bronmiller, we have
a warrant. Open the door!
Bronmiller's apartment gets
broken into and he disappears.
No one's seen his for days.
Just like what
happened with Kittner.
Unlike Kittner, Bronmiller
has a car though.
Think he's living in it? Maybe.
You know, I've heard of
a certain Cal Sci professor
who's been residing
in his car lately.
Fleinhardt?
I don't know what Megan
sees in that dude anyway.
Some women go for the muscles,
some go for the brains.
Bronmiller's car is
down here somewhere.
LAPD was told not to touch it.
That's it right there.
Doesn't seem
like he's living in it.
Raises the question.
I hate doing this.
Oh, that's a relief.
Something smells.
(coughs)
(groans)
(coughs)
Looks like we found
Chris Bronmiller.
Looks like he's been dead
for days. (phone beeps)
Sinclair. We have a dead
body, First Street Bridge.
Hey, guys.
Oswald, I've got
some bad news here.
Your pal Chris
was just found dead.
Oh, God.
Are you serious?
Yeah. Okay... Oh, God...
Oh, God...
That's so terrible. I'm
sorry. I'm sorry, Oswald.
Just take a breath, okay?
Oh... man.
This is so messed up.
Who... who would do this to him?
We don't know. We
didn't find his computer,
but we're going to
need your help here, pal.
I-I told you I don't
know anything.
I don't have a damn clue.
All right, all right,
just take a second...
Get yourself together.
How about his e-mail address?
Uh... um... Chris might have
used a cyber cafe account,
so it's harder to trace.
I can make up a list of
places that he hung out.
That's good. That'll help.
Chat Room Cafe in La Crescenta.
E-mail accounts created
through their server
over the last few months.
I'm checking for
credit card accounts
in the name of Chris Bronmiller.
Oh, there it is.
Let me see if I can open
some of these file attachments.
Oh, yeah, hey,
this is Kittner's work.
Yeah?
Yeah. So it was his friend Chris
who sent the e-mails
to Vick Johnston.
And look at that...
He got an e-mail in response.
"Regarding your statistical
analysis: interesting stuff.
"I'd like to meet
and talk about it.
Signed Vick Johnston.
But it wasn't sent
from Johnston's laptop.
I want you to trace it
and let us know, okay?
Sure, I'll try.
Chris Bronmiller thought he was
going to meet his baseball hero.
Yeah, who's dead.
Hey, you know, we have
two guest rooms in the house.
Are you sure you want to...?
No, I'm fine here.
I prefer this.
I just don't want to
go home for a while.
Not after what
happened to Chris.
Right. No, I understand.
The FBI still isn't sure who
broke into your apartment.
I know.
So, uh... what
the hell is all this?
Uh, cognitive emergence theory.
Ah, of course it is.
I'm attempting to
mathematically model
how conscious thought emerges
from basic neural functions.
Oh, kind of like a sum
is greater than its parts?
Yeah, that's the basic idea.
That's nice.
Um, you don't have
any, like, comics, do you?
You know what,
I do have something
that might interest you.
It's a baseball thing.
Uh...
my brother Don played
in the minor leagues.
And I kept his stats, so...
You might want to
take a look at those.
Stockton Rangers! Yeah.
They were my fantasy minor league
team when I was in high school.
Well, then let me
ask you something.
COLBY: Thanks
a lot. Appreciate it.
Finally got the lab results.
They name the manufacturer?
There's three companies
that manufacture Thoracyclene.
One's in the Philippines,
one in France,
and one right here,
in the L.A. area.
Now the stuff we found
in Johnston's locker
has the chemical signature
to link it up to the local firm.
So that proves they
manufactured the fatal dose?
Well, no,
it proves they made
the original steroid.
But somebody else could have
made the concentrated dose.
DON: Smells good.
All righty. Here you go.
Thanks. Here.
Doesn't your friend in the
garage want to come in for a bite?
Yeah, I offered.
He said he's okay.
You know, I kind of think
he's used to being alone.
Oh, yeah? Fantasy baseball.
What a way to make a living.
What do you mean? I
think a lot of these guys
actually end up
working for teams, right?
It's true. Bill James. Bill
James was a self-taught
baseball stats fanatic
who published his findings.
He now works for the Red Sox.
OSWALD: Hey, Charlie...
Um, oh, I'm sorry. I
didn't mean to interrupt.
I just wanted to answer
Charlie's question.
That's all right. What question?
A baseball question.
Um, about you, actually.
Yeah, just if
you'd kept playing,
would you have made the majors?
OSWALD: So I
made two evaluations.
One if you had continued
to develop normally,
and one if you'd
decided to use steroids.
This should be interesting.
Um, so with the 'roids,
you probably would have
raised your batting
average to .280
with ten to 15 home runs.
Well, so, it sounds
like the majors.
Well, "ish" because, well,
yeah, your hitting
would have improved...
Your overall value as a
player would have diminished.
Why? How so?
Well, 'cause Don's value
was as a utility player.
You didn't excel at
one particular position.
You played several
very well.
You were a solid fielder.
Quick mentally and physically
and steroids would
have messed with that.
Yeah, so, and without the drugs?
Uh, it's a bit harder to say.
Um, a lot of major
league clubs like to have
a few utility guys
on the bench...
Players who are smart
and can adapt quickly
to different situations.
Yeah, like at the FBI.
Like the FBI.
MAN: BRX makes
nutritional supplements.
Vitamins, protein powders.
And you manufacture
Thoracyclene?
One of our chemists created it
for use in adolescent males
with pituitary malfunction.
People forget that most steroids
and sports enhancement drugs
also have many
legitimate purposes.
They're used to
stimulate the growth
of bone marrow, as hormone
replacements in males
and to treat age-related
problems in the elderly.
You're the only company in the U.S.
that manufactures Thoracyclene, correct?
We hold the patent here, yes.
Two foreign manufacturers
also pay us a licensing fee
for the right to
produce it as well.
COLBY: You were originally
located in North Carolina,
but we understand you ran
into some troubles there?
The Attorney General was
against holistic medicine.
So, we relocated to a state
that doesn't have an agenda
a against alternative medicine.
So you're saying
that investigation
had nothing to do with
your production of steroids?
I had a feeling this was
where this was going.
So, I thought I'd
save you a little work.
Stacy, bring me
that file please.
Our sales records
of Thoracyclene
as submitted to the FDA.
Every purchase was made
by a licensed
physician or distributor.
And the only patients
who should be receiving it,
are young boys with
growth disorders.
Found a guy who BRX
sells Thoracyclene to
you might want
to take a look at...
Dr. Thomas Mandel.
Yeah, why him?
Specializes in sports medicine.
Apparently treats a lot of
college, high school kids.
All right, let's check him out.
DAVID: 18,19, it's pretty
young to start cutting corners.
The drugs don't do
the work for you, man.
They just change
your body chemistry
so you can work out
harder and longer.
The things you pick up in
college wrestling, you know.
Yeah, and I admit I was tempted,
but the problem is, you start
altering your body chemistry
as an adolescent,
you run the risk of
serious, permanent damage.
Like baldness and
erectile dysfunction,
premature closure
of the growth plates.
Too much testosterone
can kill brain cells.
It's not worth it, man.
And I didn't even get
to gynecomastia yet.
It's enlarged breasts in men.
Aah...
You worried about violating
doctor-patient confidentiality?
It's a college facility that's
open to all the students
and we have the administration's
permission to be here.
Nah. If the good
doctor wants privacy,
he should work
out of his office.
Excuse me. Can I help you?
We just need to check something.
Whoa.
Thoracyclene.
Legal only by a prescription.
And only to treat
specific conditions
such as unusually
small size in children.
It's either working real good
or you're in some trouble.
I want my lawyer.
I didn't know Vic Johnston.
I never treated him.
Easy enough to
confirm. Just give us a list
of the people you
did sell steroids to.
That's a violation
of confidentiality.
We have half a dozen
athletes who said you never
examined them or
took a medical history.
Yet you did supply
them with sports drugs.
Most of them between
the age of 17 and 22.
A couple as young as 14.
All they had to do was
show up, pay and get a shot.
If I give you a list of people I
sell to, what do you give me?
Points for cooperation.
Glove down, Monty.
Come on, you
guys. Let's pick it up.
Let's see some hustle. Come on.
Max Sheveransky?
FBI.
Need you to come with us, sir.
What's this about?
Vick Johnston.
We know you were
his high school coach.
I haven't talked
to him in years.
You should know
a search warrant's being
executed for your home,
your car and your office.
Looks like you already
know what we're gonna find.
We have witnesses that
saw you with Vick Johnston
two months ago.
He wanted help.
No one was offering
him a contract.
So you supplied him
with Thoracyclene?
I was the only
person he trusted.
He called you two
days before he died.
No, I don't remember that. No?
Your phone records
remember it.
You spoke to him
once for 36 minutes
and once for 47.
What about?
They play pretty good baseball
in federal prisons, you know.
(sighs)
All right. (sighs)
Vick said he thought he
was going to be exposed.
By whom?
He wouldn't say.
He just said it
was gonna get out.
That if he got caught,
he'd have to give them
my name to the grand jury.
You tell anyone else about this?
Not a soul. Not even my wife.
What did you do?
I didn't know what to do.
And then Vick died.
Yeah, from drugs you gave him.
I don't understand how.
It was the same
stuff everybody gets.
KITTNER: I can't help thinking
that if I hadn't developed
a doping formula,
Chris would still be alive.
But that... that's
not your fault.
Actions can have
unintended consequences.
You know, scientists
struggle with that.
Scientists?
All the time.
Scientific breakthroughs
have benefits.
I play fantasy baseball.
But the ability to conceptualize
the solution to a problem,
it's what applied
mathematics is all about, okay?
You have that ability.
And you can apply
it to other problems.
You're a Good Will
Hunting man, not me.
I'm just a loser who likes
baseball way too much.
Whether you like
to admit it or not,
you do also love math.
COLBY: So BRX
sold to the doctor,
the doctor sold to
the high school coach
and the coach sold
to Vick Johnston?
Yeah, we totally have
the chain of supply,
but it's still not telling us
which one killed Johnston.
And we have no link
to the murdered
fantasy baseball player.
And both the coach and
the doctor have alibis.
When Bronmiller was killed,
Sheveransky was in Sacramento
and the doctor was in Las Vegas.
Wait a minute.
Only the BRX lab could
make the lethal dose.
You know, you're still
welcome in my garage.
Yeah, I know. Don't
worry about me.
I'll be okay.
Okay, but Oswald,
just stay in touch.
Yeah, of course.
(car alarm chirps)
(three gunshots, screaming)
(tires squealing)
Everyone, stand back!
No, no, stay still!
Don't move.
It's okay. I don't think...
Oh, geez! Look at that.
I guess, uh, they missed.
Not by much.
So I almost get shot,
and you guys respond
by doing a lot of math.
That's how we
roll here at Cal-Sci.
Don thinks that somebody wants
to get rid of your
doping equations
and anybody who
knows about them.
And we are trying to determine
just who might have that motive.
Right. Now let me
ask you, Oswald.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing?
Dude, honestly, all I
see is a lot of chalk.
Are the numbers
supposed to start
glowing at some point?
Yeah, actually, I have
known certain expressions
to take on a shimmering quality.
Ah, so you have.
Look, I'll tell you
who has the greatest
motive to bury my work.
It's obvious. It's the drug
company that makes the juice.
It's obvious.
Well, thank you,
Professor Kittner.
It only took us hours
of value assessment
to come up with that conclusion
and you're saying it's obvious.
Hasn't your brother taught
you anything about crime?
Isn't it usually the person
who stands to lose or gain
the most amount of money?
Thoracyclene is valuable
because there's no test for it.
Of course, you work
destroys that value.
Right, and then...
there's this.
What is this?
This is an organizational
analysis chart.
We're quantifying the links
between the
elements of this case.
And note the drug lab.
It's linked to everyone.
(sirens wail)
(garbled radio transmission)
Federal agents!
F.B.I!
(indistinct, overlapping shouts)
Copy of Oswald
Kittner's analysis.
Where'd you find this?
I've never seen that before.
Mr. Auster, we've
established a chain of purchase
that connects you
to Vick Johnston.
And this mathematical
formula we just found,
that's a motive for murder.
Take a look at that.
You printed out the e-mails
sent to Chris Bronmiller
that set up a place
where he was murdered.
I didn't kill
anybody, all right?
None of this was my idea.
Whoa! Good shot, Bobby!
Beautiful, beautiful!
Keep that up, we'll get a
little bidding war going for you.
Play wherever you want.
Richard Clast?
Hi.
We went over our list
of your baseball clients.
Ran their stats through
your boy Kittner's system.
Okay, I don't know what this is.
I'm not a mathematician.
Is that why you gave it
to the president of BRX
labs who's a scientist.
He told you what
this math could do.
Yeah, I don't know who that is.
Really? 'Cause
your phone number's
all over his company records.
And almost all your
clients are juicing.
So there must be a lot at
stake for a guy like you, huh?
Yeah, you know what?
For a lot of agents.
I think we're finished
here. Thank you.
Whoa, whoa, you're
not going anywhere.
You're the only agent
who knew about
the math application
'cause your client, your best
friend, Vick Johnston told you.
Let's go. Turn around. Get
you hands behind your back.
I found blood on Chris
Bronmiller's jacket
that doesn't match his DNA.
Somehow, I got a feeling it's
going to match yours, isn't it?
Let's go.
You know, I loved this game
just as much as Vick did.
You're what's
wrong with this game.
(indistinct TV audio)
Hey. Hey, guys, it's okay.
It's over. We got him.
What?
Yeah, found a gun
at this beach house
that matched the bullets
that were fired at you.
Wait. So me almost
getting shot at
actually helped nail this guy?
I just hope he gets
what he deserves.
My friend Chris
was a decent guy.
Oswald, the FBI lab at
Quantico wanted to know
if you'd agree to consult
with them on your formula.
(chuckles)
They want to develop it
as an investigative tool.
I don't know.
My secret doping stats
in the hands of the feds?
No, of course, yes. I'm joking.
Whatever you guys
want. I owe you.
I just feel I should tell you
I got a call from Vick's
minor league team.
They want me to
be their statistician.
Okay, but this work for the FBI
could be a really great
opportunity for you.
Yeah, look,
you can do both.
Look how overworked this guy is.
Your work could be recognized.
You could even
publish an article
in the American
Journal of Statistics.
My boyhood dream come true.
He's got the aptitude
and the ability.
He just can't
see it for himself.
Hey, you guys see the news?
That case of yours
is big stuff, Don.
That's right. We got
ourselves a scandal.
And if the FBI can prove
the efficacy of Oswald's
analysis, it could get even bigger.
Yeah.
You, uh, thirsty? You thirsty?
I'll take a beer.
Beer? Three beers?
That case of yours
bring back memories, does it?
Yeah, well, hey, look, you know?
It's my first love.
First love, my ass.
What are you talking about?
Don't you remember how
you got started in baseball?
I always loved baseball.
Nah, not really.
Your mother and I got you into
Little League because we had
to get you stop playing
around with that little toy gun
that your Uncle Tommy gave you.
Oh, yeah. What, that
was that silver six-shooter.
Yeah, yeah, you were
playing with it constantly.
We didn't think it was
very healthy, so we figured
baseball would get your
mind off it, see, and it did...
for a couple of decades.
I guess so.
Yeah, yeah, you love baseball,
but it wasn't your first love.
Don't you remember?
When you were a kid
you used to love to play
cops and robbers?
Donny, you were always the cop.
Well, then, to Donny
Epps, a born cop.
A most excellent one.
I say hear, hear, to that.
Thanks.
Cheers.
♪ Tonight's your big night ♪
♪ And no one here can beat you ♪
♪ When you swing
for the big lights ♪
Strike!
♪ You see the crowd
erupt to meet you ♪
♪ Yeah, you're gonna
take bare hands ♪
♪ You're gonna
hit that fast one ♪
♪ You're gonna take bare hands ♪
♪ You're gonna
hit that homerun ♪
♪ 'Cause it's not enough
to feel when I feel it gone ♪
♪ Yeah, it's gone, gone,
gone, gone, gone, gone... ♪
(music fades)
Way to go, Vick. All right.
Foul ball!
Johnston's looking strong.
Yeah, says it's a new
conditioning program.
Well, if he keeps it up,
he'll be batting cleanup again
for the big club in April.
Oh, yeah.
Safe!
Taking a nap, Vick?
Hey.
Hey, we need some help here!
When we opened his
locker and saw the vials,
we called LAPD.
MEGAN: That's very
civic-minded of you.
Unless, of course,
this has more to do with
the federal grand jury probe
into baseball doping.
I don't want anyone here accused
of hiding anything
from the grand jury.
And not from the league either.
Oh, yeah? You
know he was juicing?
No. Well, he had put
on a bit of muscle lately.
Vick used that
to track his stats.
He made video
recordings of his swing.
Mm-hmm.
Vick Johnston.
He was drafted by the
Oakland A's at age 18.
For six years, he was one
of the A.L.'s top sluggers.
And then, for the
next two years,
he was on and off the DL.
Finally sent him back
down to the minors.
According to the coach,
this was supposed
to be his comeback season.
He was determined
to make it back
to the bigs.
So we found these e-mails
on his laptop.
Oh, yeah?
We know where they're from?
No. Not yet. So far,
tracing the source
has been a dead end,
but they seem to say
that they know he was juicing,
and it could, quote/unquote,
"ruin your career."
So what? Blackmail?
What's the file attachment?
That's why you're here.
This math right here, they say,
proves that he was using.
This is advanced
statistical baseball
analysis. This is...
All right. What?
Sabermetrics. Yeah.
Baseball math?
That's right. And this
is way advanced. I mean,
this is not the kind of stuff
you're going to find in the box
scores of the Sporting News,
you know, I'll tell you that.
Any way any of that could
spot drug use? I don't know.
I mean, I'm going
to have to figure out
what these abbreviations
and notations mean.
That's not standard math stuff?
Well, when mathematicians
create new types of analyses,
they often devise
their own notational shorthand.
But I love doing research.
I mean, maybe I'll find
somebody who knows this field.
Well, the death of baseball
player Vick Johnston
was the result of a massive
hemorrhage in the brain.
He had a stroke?
From the damage to the vessels,
his blood pressure
must have skyrocketed.
Can steroids cause that?
Normally, no,
but here's the thing.
Johnston had vials
containing a designer steroid:
Thoracyclene.
Most contain
Thoracyclene in a form
that's safe to
inject, but this vial
holds a concentration
that's 30 times greater.
This strength would
cause a catastrophic rise
in blood pressure.
This was an accidental
overdose? No way.
Thoracyclene is never produced
or distributed at this strength.
This vial was
specially prepared.
So it was intended to be lethal?
It's hard to see
another purpose.
So we're looking at murder.
Somebody gave Vick Johnston
a lethal dose of steroids.
So they had to have access to
his locker and the Thoracyclene.
Maybe the drug company slipped
the tainted vial into the supply.
So that was the lab.
They said they're going
to need more time to
identify the manufacturer
of the steroid.
All right. So, I
mean, the question is,
why this guy Vick Johnston?
Let's start with
the wife... Kelly.
Not bad. Yeah. Former model.
Only she's been married
for eight years, and her kids
are five and two. Did Charlie
get a handle on these equations?
I mean, apparently,
he knows a guy.
Okay, Waldie, come on.
Right down the old pipe!
Nice pitch.
Yeah. We're just conducting
a little hands-on study
of the physical properties
of the classic curveball.
You know, Newton himself
was interested in curveballs.
I mean, clearly, baseball wasn't
invented in his day, but he was
fascinated with the way a
ball can curve through air.
And who wouldn't be?
It's all fluid dynamics.
Oh, yeah. See, air sticks
to the surface of the ball,
so, when the
pitcher puts spin on it,
pressure builds up on one
side and decreases on the other,
and that imbalance,
and the ball curves.
You know, hitting
that pitch is one
the hardest feats
in all of sports.
But, Charles, when you called,
I think your question had
more to do with statistics.
Yeah. Let me show you guys
what I'm looking at here.
As you see, Dr. Waldie,
this is high-level sabermetrics,
but I just don't know
what some of these symbols mean.
And you know that I won the
Faculty Fantasy Baseball League
two years in a row.
I do. And since fantasy
baseball is based on statistics,
I figured you'd be
into sabermetrics.
Oh, absolutely.
It's the only way
to pick a winning fantasy team.
How much of our school's
supercomputer time
is given over to this crunching
of baseball stats?
I'll never tell.
This stuff is pretty wild.
Very cool changepoint detection.
Do you recognize the person
who might have done this work?
Give me a little time.
If this person is active
in fantasy baseball
or sabermetrics, I'll find
somebody who knows who he is.
Good.
MEGAN: He said, um...
people wanted to use him?
Vick's been under
pressure to win all his life.
They were all after
a piece of him...
Coaches, owners, fans.
Was he particularly close to
anyone in the organization?
No. Coaches and
the other players
didn't give a damn about him.
Only what he could
do for the team.
The only person that
really cared about him
was his agent, Richard Clast.
Yeah, Vick trusted him.
Said he wasn't looking
for a quick buck.
He was thinking long-term.
And what were Vick's prospects?
This was the last
year on his contract.
No other teams were interested
in picking him up
because he hurt
his shoulder, plus
the two knee surgeries.
He needed to get
his game back up.
He said the money he made now
would need to last
us the next 40 years.
Was there anyone that
would have wanted to hurt him?
Did he have any enemies?
No one stood to gain if he died.
Vick was only valuable
if he was playing ball.
Do you know where
he got the drugs?
Ask his coaches.
To them,
he was just a
piece of equipment.
We don't give them steroids,
and we don't tell them
what drugs to take.
But if they use, you benefit.
These are grown men.
They make their own choices.
And, if they don't get caught
or busted, you turn a blind eye.
We don't test players
unless the league says
we have some reason to.
Otherwise, we try not
to get into hypotheticals.
Which is never.
Even when a guy who
usually benches 225
is suddenly pushing 350.
The team screwed Vick.
He gives them six great years,
he plays through
an injured shoulder
'cause they need
him for a stretch drive,
then he ends up
on the disabled list.
I understand he was
working very hard
to get back in the majors?
Yeah. He would
have made it, too.
These are good. Thank you.
Vick was the real deal.
Great guy, and a
great baseball player.
Did you know he
was taking steroids?
(sighs)
He said it was just until he
could get his numbers back up.
Thank you.
Most players use now and again.
I'd say, at any given time,
25% of them.
This was about
Vick's next contract.
It was now or never.
Thank you. Some would say
that there is life
after baseball.
Really? What
were Vick's options?
He was drafted
out of high school.
It wasn't like he had another
career he could fall back on.
He'd be lucky to
get a job making
33K a year coaching
some JC team.
You met his wife.
Think she was going
to stick around for that?
Hey, can you just
give me one second?
I'll be right with you.
Great.
What about his kids?
They worshiped their
baseball hero father.
You think they're going to look
up to some used car salesman?
I don't know. I thought
the wife really seemed
to care about him.
Well, I might be cynical,
but I've seen an
awful lot of wives
move on after the
baseball money dries up.
And the agents?
It's my job to take
care of my clients,
to keep them playing
and making money
as long as they can.
Obviously, I have to care
about their health and well-being.
But with Vick, it was different.
He was actually one
of my best friends.
Professor Waldie
sent out queries,
asking fantasy league players
if they've seen similar work
and this is what we got back.
Hmm. Where'd this come from?
It's for real stats fanatics.
Well, just looking at it, I mean
it's gotta be the same guy.
Right? The
abbreviations are identical.
Only here, he explains
what they stand for.
DB... Distance Batted.
EJ... Elevation of Trajectory.
TB... Thrown Bats.
Thrown Bats? Who is this guy?
Oswald Kittner. He plays in 16
high-stakes fantasy leagues.
Kittner. Okay. I'm
gonna go tell the FBI.
Now that I know what
these abbreviations mean,
I may be able to determine
whether this math really
does reveal drug use.
So, thank you, gentlemen.
Someone gave Kittner's
apartment a going over.
We didn't find the computer.
Well, has he shown up
anywhere? At work? Anything?
He's unemployed.
We got a 25-year-old
high school dropout
with no bank accounts,
no car, no criminal record.
Super, neighbors, no one's
seen him for a couple of days.
Might be a
blackmailer, but if not,
his works' definitely
involved somehow.
Incredible. This Kittner person
has basically reinvented
the Shiryayev-Roberts
changepoint detection
procedure to pinpoint steroid use.
And without the
need for medical tests.
I mean, this could
have major ramifications.
Yeah, right, 'cause
there's no way
to test for drugs like
Thoracyclene and THG.
Once they're metabolized in
the body, they're undetectable.
Yeah, the wonders
of sabermetrics.
It really is a powerful
form of analysis in baseball.
The physical nature of
the game involves chance,
so the difference
between a hit and an out
could be millimeters
or milliseconds,
So, when you have athletic
situations involving chance
repeated over and over
again, a statistical analysis
can isolate and reveal
human performance.
Well, you know,
it wouldn't be the first time
math revealed a surprising
truth about this sport.
In a 1993 article in The
American Statistician,
J. Bennett, using sabermetrics,
analyzed Shoeless
Joe Jackson's career.
He was able to prove that
Jackson played up
to his full potential
in every one of the 1919
Black Sox series.
So, even though he was accused
of throwing the whole series,
Jackson was completely
innocent, wasn't he?
That's right.
Math restored a man's good name
and reputation after 70 years.
I find that rather beautiful.
But, you know, this
doesn't clear the player
of cheating; it rather
does just the opposite.
I know.
So, to test if it works,
I gathered stats from
players generally believed
to have used steroids
and ran them through
Kittner's analysis.
Huh.
What did you find?
His work
seems to be quite accurate.
20 minutes ago, I
was on the couch
watching Blazing Saddles
in my pajamas.
This better be good.
It's better than good.
The red cowgirl PJs?
MEGAN: Mm-hmm.
Okay.
Okay, uh...
So Kittner's equations work.
They identify when
a player is using
perfomance-enhancement drugs.
All right, so, even if people
thought Johnston was using...
They couldn't prove it, and
now they can with Kittner's
and Kittner could probably
even be blackmailing him.
That's right, and
when Charles told me
that this Kittner person
had dropped out of sight,
it got me to thinking,
displaced people
will be drawn to places
that meet essential needs.
If you're tired, you
need a place to lie down.
If you're thirsty, you
need a source of water,
And if you play
fantasy baseball,
you need the Internet.
LARRY: And of special note here:
Tomorrow is the deadline
for the winter fantasy draft.
So Kittner needs
to plug in his laptop.
Yeah, what's...? That's
a downtown address?
Yeah, that's Little Tokyo.
They have cyber
cafés in the area.
LARRY: Well, fortunately,
human geography
is much less immense
than that of the cosmos.
COLBY: You know what this
place kind of reminds me of?
Let me guess. Bladerunner.
Yeah. Exactly.
How do you think
Ridley Scott knows
what the future
is gonna look like?
No idea,
but Daryl Hannah made
one kick-ass cyborg.
Is that...? Oswald Kittner?
FBI. Come here.
Come here!
Hey! Whoa!
Out of the way. Don't move!
Go around and cut
him off on the other side.
Got it.
My bad! Sorry!
Up!
Hey.
Was that really necessary?
Yeah, it is when you run.
Hands behind your back!
Hey, well, wait.
Are you really FBI?
Yeah, for real.
Well, at the risk of
me getting beat up,
uh, can I ask what
you're arresting me for?
In your case,
skateboarding is a crime.
So before you stick
me on the next plane
down to Guantanamo, can I
exercise some legal rights?
What, uh, what is
this supposed to be?
E-mails you sent
to Vick Johnston.
What? No way.
Come on, Oswald, I talked
to a lot of smart people.
They all know your work.
Well, they're blowing
smoke up your skirt.
If you were wearing a skirt.
Anyway,
I-I have no idea what
this is supposed to be.
Huh.
Well, then, I'll have to ask you
the classic... if you didn't do
anything wrong, why'd you run?
Because last week I came home
and two guys were
tearing up my apartment.
So I got the hell out of there.
Your beef monkeys
come at me on the street.
I'm not gonna wait around
to see if they're legit.
Do you know who broke
into your apartment or why?
Well, I win a lot at
fantasy baseball.
I-I just assumed somebody was
trying to sneak a
peek at my research.
Well, it must be a pretty
cutthroat game
of fantasy baseball
Actually, it is.
One of the leagues I play
in, winner gets 15 grand.
15 grand inspires
a little B&E, so...
me and my laptop
went off the grid.
This is Dr. Charles Epps.
He's a professor of mathematics
up at CalSci.
Him?
Yeah. Him.
Well, then, maybe he can explain
all this stuff to you, 'cause
all these, these numbers,
I-I, it's over my head.
It's funny. I don't think it is.
It's oddly similar
to this work,
which you posted
on a baseball stats Web site
under your own name.
He's the only person
using these abbreviations,
and it works.
His analysis
accurately spots steroid use.
Good Will Hunting.
Yeah, you got
me, all right? Yeah,
this is my work, and that is
exactly what it does, but,
I never e-mailed
it to Vick Johnston.
I never showed this to anybody.
Why? Why didn't you?
It's a significant
statistical breakthrough.
It's a significant advantage
in fantasy baseball...
If nobody else knows about it.
Tech went through his laptop.
It's not the source
of the e-mails
that Johnston received.
Yeah, see, I mean,
I don't see a motive.
I mean, even if he
was blackmailing him.
Which I doubt. He
was genuinely surprised
to see his work
on those e-mails.
Yeah, but what about the
break-in at the apartment?
It could be they were
after his steroid analysis.
That still doesn't
tell us who gave
Vick Johnston a lethal dose
of Thoracyclene, though.
We know yet where
they were manufactured?
No, still waiting. All right.
We just gotta get
a handle on this kid.
You know, I don't see him
opening up to any of us,
but... he might
with someone else.
Um... Dr. Epps, I
got your message.
Yeah, how you doing, Oswald?
Why don't you
follow me in my office.
Yeah. All right.
So, you know,
I wasn't really sure
that your attorney would
tell you that I called.
Oh, yeah. No, he doesn't
want me talking to you
He thinks you're just gathering
information for the FBI.
Yeah, well... he's right.
But the FBI just wants to know
who knows about your work.
That's all.
Well, I mean, like
I already told them,
nobody else knows.
There is another reason
I wanted to talk to you.
Um, your analysis
is amazing.
Really.
It's deep.
It's deep?
(laughs)
Wow. Um...
Deep's good, right?
Deep... yeah, complex.
Elegant, yeah.
That's, well... I guess
you would know.
Um...
This stuff is all
calculus, right?
Yeah. Guess you studied
calculus in high school, right?
Oh, no, no, we didn't
have it in my school.
No, I learned from,
like, library books,
uh, stuff other
fantasy leaguers did.
So you're self-taught?
I guess so.
That's qu... that's quite
an accomplishment. Um...
You ever think about
coming to a place like this
to actually study math?
Well, yeah, but...
I mean, dude,
I don't even have a G.E.D.
Dude, you don't even need one.
No, seriously, you
could get admitted
on the strength
of your work alone.
You should at least consider
publishing your findings.
Oh, hell, no. I gotta
keep my best stuff secret.
I mean, that's how I win.
Science is about
sharing knowledge.
One more reason I'm not
a scientist. Yeah, you are.
You come up with
theories, you test them,
you make new findings.
Well, maybe I'll have
to dust off a shelf
for my Nobel Prize.
(chuckles)
Hi. Oh, hey, Pop.
You know where Charlie is?
Yeah, he's in school.
Oh, listen, I had two meetings
cancel on me this afternoon.
Yeah. You want to play?
Yeah, I wish. I can't.
I-I gotta, I gotta
deal with this case.
Oh, yeah.
The ballplayer.
Yeah.
It's very sad, isn't it?
He left a wife, two kids.
You have any
idea who killed him?
No, I can't figure out a motive.
Maybe blackmail, but...
the thing is, blackmailers
rarely kill, so...
What?
Hmm?
What are you doing?
Nothing. I just...
My last year with the
Rangers, I hit .228 with 36 RBIs.
With steroids, I would
have hit .260 with 50 ribbies.
That's what my backup
did. The guy winds up
in the majors, you know?
Uh, that would be cheating.
Yeah, I mean, is it cheating
if everyone does it? Yes.
We all give up things, Donny.
Yeah?
What'd you give up?
I don't know. I...
One day I was
backpacking around Europe,
no plans, no worries,
all the freedom in the world.
Next thing you
know, I got a family
and a mortgage and two
weeks vacation every year.
You regret any of it?
No.
But I do miss the
things I gave up for them.
All right.
So tell Chuck I'm
looking for him.
Play well.
Hit 'em long.
Will do.
KITTNER: Fantasy
leagues are competitive.
I figured if I could
come up with a way
to spot drug use in players,
my trades and drafts
would be that much better.
How did you figure that?
Um, players that are
juicing are more likely
to get injured mid-season.
Stats back it up.
And you're sure you didn't
tell anybody about your work?
Not even my best friends.
I mean, I compete
against them, you know?
You didn't even hint that
specific players were doping?
Players that nobody
else knew that about?
Oh, man.
Did Colby get that report back?
Don! Megan!
Hey, Oswald thinks he knows
who sent the e-mails to Johnston.
You said you didn't
tell anyone. No, I didn't,
but I got into an argument
with my friend Chris Bronmiller.
Huge fan of Vick Johnston's.
Oh, and you told him that
his hero was using steroids?
Does he have
access to your work?
Well, we hang out a lot,
and I always leave
my laptop around.
(pounding on door)
Chris Bronmiller, we have
a warrant. Open the door!
Bronmiller's apartment gets
broken into and he disappears.
No one's seen his for days.
Just like what
happened with Kittner.
Unlike Kittner, Bronmiller
has a car though.
Think he's living in it? Maybe.
You know, I've heard of
a certain Cal Sci professor
who's been residing
in his car lately.
Fleinhardt?
I don't know what Megan
sees in that dude anyway.
Some women go for the muscles,
some go for the brains.
Bronmiller's car is
down here somewhere.
LAPD was told not to touch it.
That's it right there.
Doesn't seem
like he's living in it.
Raises the question.
I hate doing this.
Oh, that's a relief.
Something smells.
(coughs)
(groans)
(coughs)
Looks like we found
Chris Bronmiller.
Looks like he's been dead
for days. (phone beeps)
Sinclair. We have a dead
body, First Street Bridge.
Hey, guys.
Oswald, I've got
some bad news here.
Your pal Chris
was just found dead.
Oh, God.
Are you serious?
Yeah. Okay... Oh, God...
Oh, God...
That's so terrible. I'm
sorry. I'm sorry, Oswald.
Just take a breath, okay?
Oh... man.
This is so messed up.
Who... who would do this to him?
We don't know. We
didn't find his computer,
but we're going to
need your help here, pal.
I-I told you I don't
know anything.
I don't have a damn clue.
All right, all right,
just take a second...
Get yourself together.
How about his e-mail address?
Uh... um... Chris might have
used a cyber cafe account,
so it's harder to trace.
I can make up a list of
places that he hung out.
That's good. That'll help.
Chat Room Cafe in La Crescenta.
E-mail accounts created
through their server
over the last few months.
I'm checking for
credit card accounts
in the name of Chris Bronmiller.
Oh, there it is.
Let me see if I can open
some of these file attachments.
Oh, yeah, hey,
this is Kittner's work.
Yeah?
Yeah. So it was his friend Chris
who sent the e-mails
to Vick Johnston.
And look at that...
He got an e-mail in response.
"Regarding your statistical
analysis: interesting stuff.
"I'd like to meet
and talk about it.
Signed Vick Johnston.
But it wasn't sent
from Johnston's laptop.
I want you to trace it
and let us know, okay?
Sure, I'll try.
Chris Bronmiller thought he was
going to meet his baseball hero.
Yeah, who's dead.
Hey, you know, we have
two guest rooms in the house.
Are you sure you want to...?
No, I'm fine here.
I prefer this.
I just don't want to
go home for a while.
Not after what
happened to Chris.
Right. No, I understand.
The FBI still isn't sure who
broke into your apartment.
I know.
So, uh... what
the hell is all this?
Uh, cognitive emergence theory.
Ah, of course it is.
I'm attempting to
mathematically model
how conscious thought emerges
from basic neural functions.
Oh, kind of like a sum
is greater than its parts?
Yeah, that's the basic idea.
That's nice.
Um, you don't have
any, like, comics, do you?
You know what,
I do have something
that might interest you.
It's a baseball thing.
Uh...
my brother Don played
in the minor leagues.
And I kept his stats, so...
You might want to
take a look at those.
Stockton Rangers! Yeah.
They were my fantasy minor league
team when I was in high school.
Well, then let me
ask you something.
COLBY: Thanks
a lot. Appreciate it.
Finally got the lab results.
They name the manufacturer?
There's three companies
that manufacture Thoracyclene.
One's in the Philippines,
one in France,
and one right here,
in the L.A. area.
Now the stuff we found
in Johnston's locker
has the chemical signature
to link it up to the local firm.
So that proves they
manufactured the fatal dose?
Well, no,
it proves they made
the original steroid.
But somebody else could have
made the concentrated dose.
DON: Smells good.
All righty. Here you go.
Thanks. Here.
Doesn't your friend in the
garage want to come in for a bite?
Yeah, I offered.
He said he's okay.
You know, I kind of think
he's used to being alone.
Oh, yeah? Fantasy baseball.
What a way to make a living.
What do you mean? I
think a lot of these guys
actually end up
working for teams, right?
It's true. Bill James. Bill
James was a self-taught
baseball stats fanatic
who published his findings.
He now works for the Red Sox.
OSWALD: Hey, Charlie...
Um, oh, I'm sorry. I
didn't mean to interrupt.
I just wanted to answer
Charlie's question.
That's all right. What question?
A baseball question.
Um, about you, actually.
Yeah, just if
you'd kept playing,
would you have made the majors?
OSWALD: So I
made two evaluations.
One if you had continued
to develop normally,
and one if you'd
decided to use steroids.
This should be interesting.
Um, so with the 'roids,
you probably would have
raised your batting
average to .280
with ten to 15 home runs.
Well, so, it sounds
like the majors.
Well, "ish" because, well,
yeah, your hitting
would have improved...
Your overall value as a
player would have diminished.
Why? How so?
Well, 'cause Don's value
was as a utility player.
You didn't excel at
one particular position.
You played several
very well.
You were a solid fielder.
Quick mentally and physically
and steroids would
have messed with that.
Yeah, so, and without the drugs?
Uh, it's a bit harder to say.
Um, a lot of major
league clubs like to have
a few utility guys
on the bench...
Players who are smart
and can adapt quickly
to different situations.
Yeah, like at the FBI.
Like the FBI.
MAN: BRX makes
nutritional supplements.
Vitamins, protein powders.
And you manufacture
Thoracyclene?
One of our chemists created it
for use in adolescent males
with pituitary malfunction.
People forget that most steroids
and sports enhancement drugs
also have many
legitimate purposes.
They're used to
stimulate the growth
of bone marrow, as hormone
replacements in males
and to treat age-related
problems in the elderly.
You're the only company in the U.S.
that manufactures Thoracyclene, correct?
We hold the patent here, yes.
Two foreign manufacturers
also pay us a licensing fee
for the right to
produce it as well.
COLBY: You were originally
located in North Carolina,
but we understand you ran
into some troubles there?
The Attorney General was
against holistic medicine.
So, we relocated to a state
that doesn't have an agenda
a against alternative medicine.
So you're saying
that investigation
had nothing to do with
your production of steroids?
I had a feeling this was
where this was going.
So, I thought I'd
save you a little work.
Stacy, bring me
that file please.
Our sales records
of Thoracyclene
as submitted to the FDA.
Every purchase was made
by a licensed
physician or distributor.
And the only patients
who should be receiving it,
are young boys with
growth disorders.
Found a guy who BRX
sells Thoracyclene to
you might want
to take a look at...
Dr. Thomas Mandel.
Yeah, why him?
Specializes in sports medicine.
Apparently treats a lot of
college, high school kids.
All right, let's check him out.
DAVID: 18,19, it's pretty
young to start cutting corners.
The drugs don't do
the work for you, man.
They just change
your body chemistry
so you can work out
harder and longer.
The things you pick up in
college wrestling, you know.
Yeah, and I admit I was tempted,
but the problem is, you start
altering your body chemistry
as an adolescent,
you run the risk of
serious, permanent damage.
Like baldness and
erectile dysfunction,
premature closure
of the growth plates.
Too much testosterone
can kill brain cells.
It's not worth it, man.
And I didn't even get
to gynecomastia yet.
It's enlarged breasts in men.
Aah...
You worried about violating
doctor-patient confidentiality?
It's a college facility that's
open to all the students
and we have the administration's
permission to be here.
Nah. If the good
doctor wants privacy,
he should work
out of his office.
Excuse me. Can I help you?
We just need to check something.
Whoa.
Thoracyclene.
Legal only by a prescription.
And only to treat
specific conditions
such as unusually
small size in children.
It's either working real good
or you're in some trouble.
I want my lawyer.
I didn't know Vic Johnston.
I never treated him.
Easy enough to
confirm. Just give us a list
of the people you
did sell steroids to.
That's a violation
of confidentiality.
We have half a dozen
athletes who said you never
examined them or
took a medical history.
Yet you did supply
them with sports drugs.
Most of them between
the age of 17 and 22.
A couple as young as 14.
All they had to do was
show up, pay and get a shot.
If I give you a list of people I
sell to, what do you give me?
Points for cooperation.
Glove down, Monty.
Come on, you
guys. Let's pick it up.
Let's see some hustle. Come on.
Max Sheveransky?
FBI.
Need you to come with us, sir.
What's this about?
Vick Johnston.
We know you were
his high school coach.
I haven't talked
to him in years.
You should know
a search warrant's being
executed for your home,
your car and your office.
Looks like you already
know what we're gonna find.
We have witnesses that
saw you with Vick Johnston
two months ago.
He wanted help.
No one was offering
him a contract.
So you supplied him
with Thoracyclene?
I was the only
person he trusted.
He called you two
days before he died.
No, I don't remember that. No?
Your phone records
remember it.
You spoke to him
once for 36 minutes
and once for 47.
What about?
They play pretty good baseball
in federal prisons, you know.
(sighs)
All right. (sighs)
Vick said he thought he
was going to be exposed.
By whom?
He wouldn't say.
He just said it
was gonna get out.
That if he got caught,
he'd have to give them
my name to the grand jury.
You tell anyone else about this?
Not a soul. Not even my wife.
What did you do?
I didn't know what to do.
And then Vick died.
Yeah, from drugs you gave him.
I don't understand how.
It was the same
stuff everybody gets.
KITTNER: I can't help thinking
that if I hadn't developed
a doping formula,
Chris would still be alive.
But that... that's
not your fault.
Actions can have
unintended consequences.
You know, scientists
struggle with that.
Scientists?
All the time.
Scientific breakthroughs
have benefits.
I play fantasy baseball.
But the ability to conceptualize
the solution to a problem,
it's what applied
mathematics is all about, okay?
You have that ability.
And you can apply
it to other problems.
You're a Good Will
Hunting man, not me.
I'm just a loser who likes
baseball way too much.
Whether you like
to admit it or not,
you do also love math.
COLBY: So BRX
sold to the doctor,
the doctor sold to
the high school coach
and the coach sold
to Vick Johnston?
Yeah, we totally have
the chain of supply,
but it's still not telling us
which one killed Johnston.
And we have no link
to the murdered
fantasy baseball player.
And both the coach and
the doctor have alibis.
When Bronmiller was killed,
Sheveransky was in Sacramento
and the doctor was in Las Vegas.
Wait a minute.
Only the BRX lab could
make the lethal dose.
You know, you're still
welcome in my garage.
Yeah, I know. Don't
worry about me.
I'll be okay.
Okay, but Oswald,
just stay in touch.
Yeah, of course.
(car alarm chirps)
(three gunshots, screaming)
(tires squealing)
Everyone, stand back!
No, no, stay still!
Don't move.
It's okay. I don't think...
Oh, geez! Look at that.
I guess, uh, they missed.
Not by much.
So I almost get shot,
and you guys respond
by doing a lot of math.
That's how we
roll here at Cal-Sci.
Don thinks that somebody wants
to get rid of your
doping equations
and anybody who
knows about them.
And we are trying to determine
just who might have that motive.
Right. Now let me
ask you, Oswald.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing?
Dude, honestly, all I
see is a lot of chalk.
Are the numbers
supposed to start
glowing at some point?
Yeah, actually, I have
known certain expressions
to take on a shimmering quality.
Ah, so you have.
Look, I'll tell you
who has the greatest
motive to bury my work.
It's obvious. It's the drug
company that makes the juice.
It's obvious.
Well, thank you,
Professor Kittner.
It only took us hours
of value assessment
to come up with that conclusion
and you're saying it's obvious.
Hasn't your brother taught
you anything about crime?
Isn't it usually the person
who stands to lose or gain
the most amount of money?
Thoracyclene is valuable
because there's no test for it.
Of course, you work
destroys that value.
Right, and then...
there's this.
What is this?
This is an organizational
analysis chart.
We're quantifying the links
between the
elements of this case.
And note the drug lab.
It's linked to everyone.
(sirens wail)
(garbled radio transmission)
Federal agents!
F.B.I!
(indistinct, overlapping shouts)
Copy of Oswald
Kittner's analysis.
Where'd you find this?
I've never seen that before.
Mr. Auster, we've
established a chain of purchase
that connects you
to Vick Johnston.
And this mathematical
formula we just found,
that's a motive for murder.
Take a look at that.
You printed out the e-mails
sent to Chris Bronmiller
that set up a place
where he was murdered.
I didn't kill
anybody, all right?
None of this was my idea.
Whoa! Good shot, Bobby!
Beautiful, beautiful!
Keep that up, we'll get a
little bidding war going for you.
Play wherever you want.
Richard Clast?
Hi.
We went over our list
of your baseball clients.
Ran their stats through
your boy Kittner's system.
Okay, I don't know what this is.
I'm not a mathematician.
Is that why you gave it
to the president of BRX
labs who's a scientist.
He told you what
this math could do.
Yeah, I don't know who that is.
Really? 'Cause
your phone number's
all over his company records.
And almost all your
clients are juicing.
So there must be a lot at
stake for a guy like you, huh?
Yeah, you know what?
For a lot of agents.
I think we're finished
here. Thank you.
Whoa, whoa, you're
not going anywhere.
You're the only agent
who knew about
the math application
'cause your client, your best
friend, Vick Johnston told you.
Let's go. Turn around. Get
you hands behind your back.
I found blood on Chris
Bronmiller's jacket
that doesn't match his DNA.
Somehow, I got a feeling it's
going to match yours, isn't it?
Let's go.
You know, I loved this game
just as much as Vick did.
You're what's
wrong with this game.
(indistinct TV audio)
Hey. Hey, guys, it's okay.
It's over. We got him.
What?
Yeah, found a gun
at this beach house
that matched the bullets
that were fired at you.
Wait. So me almost
getting shot at
actually helped nail this guy?
I just hope he gets
what he deserves.
My friend Chris
was a decent guy.
Oswald, the FBI lab at
Quantico wanted to know
if you'd agree to consult
with them on your formula.
(chuckles)
They want to develop it
as an investigative tool.
I don't know.
My secret doping stats
in the hands of the feds?
No, of course, yes. I'm joking.
Whatever you guys
want. I owe you.
I just feel I should tell you
I got a call from Vick's
minor league team.
They want me to
be their statistician.
Okay, but this work for the FBI
could be a really great
opportunity for you.
Yeah, look,
you can do both.
Look how overworked this guy is.
Your work could be recognized.
You could even
publish an article
in the American
Journal of Statistics.
My boyhood dream come true.
He's got the aptitude
and the ability.
He just can't
see it for himself.
Hey, you guys see the news?
That case of yours
is big stuff, Don.
That's right. We got
ourselves a scandal.
And if the FBI can prove
the efficacy of Oswald's
analysis, it could get even bigger.
Yeah.
You, uh, thirsty? You thirsty?
I'll take a beer.
Beer? Three beers?
That case of yours
bring back memories, does it?
Yeah, well, hey, look, you know?
It's my first love.
First love, my ass.
What are you talking about?
Don't you remember how
you got started in baseball?
I always loved baseball.
Nah, not really.
Your mother and I got you into
Little League because we had
to get you stop playing
around with that little toy gun
that your Uncle Tommy gave you.
Oh, yeah. What, that
was that silver six-shooter.
Yeah, yeah, you were
playing with it constantly.
We didn't think it was
very healthy, so we figured
baseball would get your
mind off it, see, and it did...
for a couple of decades.
I guess so.
Yeah, yeah, you love baseball,
but it wasn't your first love.
Don't you remember?
When you were a kid
you used to love to play
cops and robbers?
Donny, you were always the cop.
Well, then, to Donny
Epps, a born cop.
A most excellent one.
I say hear, hear, to that.
Thanks.
Cheers.