Horizon (1964–…): Season 48, Episode 13 - Global Weirding - full transcript

THUNDER CLAP

'Something strange is happening
to our weather.

'It seems to be getting
more extreme.'

Yeah, it could be a record-breaking
cold night...

'Britain recently shivered
through two

'back-to-back
record-breaking cold winters.

'Last year, Scotland splashed
through its wettest year on record.

'Yet earlier in the year,

'parts of eastern England
had their driest spring ever.

'But the UK's not alone.

'Records are being broken
all over the planet.'



I have never, ever seen anything
like this before.

'Storms appear
to be getting bigger.'

Hurricane power
has more than doubled

between the decade of the '80s
and this past decade.

'The weather's been getting so weird

'that in some places,
record-breaking rain

'has been followed by
record-breaking drought.'

We've never had

this kind of steep oscillation
go from one year to the next.

'Some scientists are calling it
global weirding.'

Events that used to be random
and extreme

are becoming much more frequent
and severe.

We are going to live in a different
world than the one we grew up in.

'Our weather
is hypnotically beautiful.



'It's constantly changing,

'famously difficult to predict.

'But why does it seem to be
getting weirder?

'The world's leading
weather scientists are trying to
understand what's happening.

'It's part of
a global investigation.

'Because however local
your weather feels,

'it's a small part of what plays out
across the planet as a whole.

'It may seem obvious, but one place
scientists are trying to get to
grips with global weather extremes

'is in one of the most extreme
weather events on Earth.

'And there's no bigger weather event
than a hurricane.

'That's where people like
Jason Dunion come in.

'He's a hurricane scientist

'who's turned in his white coat

'for a blue jumpsuit, and left the
lab for the MacDill Air Force base

'in Tampa, Florida.

'Because Jason and his colleagues

'fly these aircraft into the middle
of the weather madness.

'It's the best way to work out
what really makes hurricanes tick.'

COMMUNICATIONS ON RADIO

You can't get everything
you need to know about a hurricane

by looking at it from satellites or
a buoy that's measuring the storm.

So we've got to fly into that storm.

Whether we're dropping instruments
into it

or using radars
to get a three-dimensional picture
of what's going on.

You can't do that in any other way.

'Carrying out complicated scientific
experiments in a hurricane

'creates its own set
of unique problems.'

You're coming in at 10,000 feet,

passing through outer rain bands,
getting jostled around in the plane.

Then you go through the eye wall,

that doughnut around the eye
of a storm that's really intense.

You're tossed around pretty good.

You can lose a few hundred feet
of altitude in a few seconds.

Pop through that eye wall
and it's incredible.

You're in what looks like
a football stadium.

The biggest one you've ever seen.
It can be ten, 20, 30 miles across.

And it's very still.

It's a surreal spot in the storm,
after what you've gone through.

And you know this is a beast.

But you're only through half the
storm. There's still halfway to go.

'The hurricane chasers produce
mountains of data from every flight.

'One of the things
they've discovered
is that hurricanes pulse at night.

'More significantly, they've also
recorded an increase in the number
of category five storms,

'the most extreme and powerful
hurricanes.'

We've seen many category fives
over the years.

We certainly have better
tracking capabilities.

We can see category fives
in the middle of the ocean

that we would have missed
50 years ago.

There have been more
major hurricanes in recent years

and we're trying to understand why,
but we have to keep an eye on those.

Those are the storms
that can cause all the damage.

'So, Jason and his fellow
hurricane chasers are recording
more category five storms.

'This is a development
that scientists are starting
to grapple with.

'North Atlantic hurricanes
only account for about 11%

'of the world's tropical cyclones.

'But Professor Kerry Emanuel,

'one of the world's leading
hurricane experts,

'has started to see something
of a pattern in his own backyard.'

This last decade was the worst
in the record books.

2005 was especially bad. We had
a record number of hurricanes.

So many they ran out of letters
and had to go to the Greek alphabet.

'Professor Emanuel
is trying to figure out
why this might be happening.

'One crucial factor is the mechanism

'that's at the core of what
makes them work in the first place.

'Hurricanes are driven by heat.

'In fact, they're quite simply
massive heat engines.

'They effectively transfer warmth
from the ocean...

'..into the atmosphere.

'As all of that heat drifts upwards,

'it gets whipped into huge
hurricane-force winds.

'This is a process
we all have personal experience of.'

When people go outside,
one of the main reasons we feel cool
is water evaporating from our skin.

And when water evaporates from us,
it chills us.

That energy doesn't disappear.
It goes into the atmosphere.

When water evaporates from the
oceans it takes heat out the oceans
and puts it into the atmosphere.

'Hurricanes are so powerful

'because the heat energy transferred
from the ocean to the atmosphere

'is unimaginably huge.

'They take heat from hundreds of
thousands of square miles of ocean.

'The average hurricane turns that

'into three trillion watts
of kinetic energy.

'The equivalent of a ten megaton
nuclear bomb exploding

'about every 20 minutes.

'Because they are driven by heat,
hurricanes are sensitive

'to any changes in the temperature
of the Atlantic ocean.

'And that's recently been
on the rise.'

Part of this increase
in hurricane power

from the '80s to recent times, is
related to sea surface temperature.

As the temperature goes up, this
thermal disequilibrium between the
ocean and atmosphere also goes up.

It goes up at a rate
that would increase the wind speed

of hurricanes maybe
7% for every one degree C.

But we've seen a lot more than
7% for half a degree.

So we're trying to understand that.

'But he's not just interested in
what's happened in the past.

'He's trying to get a sense
of what the future might be

'if ocean temperatures
continue to rise.'

If we look at the distribution of
hurricanes in the present climate,

with weak storms over on this side

and strong storms over on this side,

what we see is lots of weak events.

And as you go towards stronger
events the numbers decline,

until you get to a speed limit

which, in today's climate,
is about 200 miles per hour.

Now, after the climate warms,
the distribution's expected to look

more like this...

..with fewer weak storms up here,

but more strong storms.

We expect that speed limit
will go up to something like

220 miles per hour.

'But the weirding of hurricanes
doesn't stop there.

'Professor Emanuel believes

'that in the future, we can expect
hurricanes in parts of the world

'that have never seen them before.

'He calls these
"black swan events".'

I spends a lot of time

modelling hurricanes in the current
climate and future climates.

When we do that,
we begin to see hurricanes

that haven't happened yet
in history, but could happen
on physical grounds.

We call those "black swan events",
the particularly bad ones.

This worries me because
there are places around the world

that are at great risk
from hurricanes.

Some of which don't know they're
at great risk from hurricanes.

'It seems scarcely credible,

'but one of the places he thinks
could be hit by a hurricane

'is here in Dubai

'in the Persian Gulf.'

The Persian Gulf is a body of water
that gets very hot in the summer.

Really hot. The hot water
runs very deep, as well.

To our knowledge, in the limited
history of the region,

there hasn't been a hurricane there.

There may have been one in the
distant past that wasn't recorded.

Our models tell us there could be.

They'd be rare, but if a hurricane
ever happened there, it could get
very intense. Even today, it could.

Winds well over 200 miles per hour.

It worries us

because we see
a lot of building going on

with no thought that there might be
a risk from hurricanes.

'One of the important things
about the weather

'is that small changes in
temperature that we hardly notice

'can whip up storms we can't avoid.

'But how are these small changes

'having an impact on weather events
in other parts of the world?

'This is west Texas,

'where they're very comfortable
with extremes.

'Big cars.

'Big hats.

'And big farms aren't the exception,
but the norm.

'But this isn't normal.

'These fields should be white,
covered in blooming cotton.

'But all that's blowing
in the wind...

'..is dust.

'Matt Farmer has been growing cotton
here for most of his life,

'and he's been looking in
desperation for any sign of rain.'

I'm 51 years old.

I was raised not far from the farm
that we're sitting on right now.

I've never seen it...
I've seen it be dry.

I've never seen it be dry
for this length of time, you know.

Never have seen anything like this
at all.

'And it just keeps getting worse.

'Matt recorded this raging
dust storm on his camera phone.'

WIND BLOWS

Just a reminder how dry we are

and the condition
that our land is in.

'This dust storm was so huge
it made the local news -

'55 miles away.'

REPORTER: Look at this incredible
video, folks.

I have never, ever seen anything
like this before.

This is where we live,

and this is what we're in for
until we get some moisture.

It's gonna take
a pretty significant rain event.

You know, we need moisture
and we need a bunch of it

before we can do something
to this land.

'It's now officially
the worst drought on record here.

'It's fast becoming like
the dust bowl of the 1930s,

'which forced thousands people
off their land.'

Let's jump to the weather lab
and take a look.

The storm system is departing...

'Local weatherman Ron Roberts,
who's been at KAMC for over 30 years

'hasn't been able to forecast rain
for nearly all of 2011.'

..What does all the blue mean?
It's a freeze warning...

We are seeing an incredible drought.

This is the worst drought
in climate history for this region.

Only four inches of precipitation.

The worst drought before this -
eight inches about 70 years ago.

That should give you a pretty good
idea of how severe this is.

We've never had a drought like this.

'It's yet another example
of a weather record being broken.

..pets out there in the morning...

'It doesn't make forecasting
the weather any easier.'

I think this has been one of
the toughest years to forecast.

It is a drought, but everybody
wants the drought to end.

"When's it going to rain?"

There's more pressure
during a drought to know
what they need to do.

'The stakes couldn't be higher.

'Trying to get to the bottom of this

'is one of the world's
leading climate scientists.

'Professor Katharine Hayhoe
has a more than academic interest
in figuring out what's happening.

'She lives and works in west Texas.'

What we are experiencing ourselves,

in the places where we live
our day-to-day lives,

is changes in the average conditions
that we're used to.

One of the first things we're seeing
is changes in our extremes.

We're seeing global weirding.

'Global weirding is a phrase
she helped popularise.

'One of the clues to the weirding
of the west Texas weather

'lies right under her feet.'

Here's some west Texas dirt,
good dirt,

even though it's blowing away
like sand - it's just very dry.

We're below 99% below average
right now -

so far below average
we can't measure how dry it is.

'As the soil becomes drier
and drier,

'the drought gets worse and worse.

'That gets amplified because
there's no moisture left in the soil

'to evaporate into rain.

'But the weird thing
about the weather in west Texas

'is that the year before
this record-breaking drought,

'these bone-dry fields
were awash in rain.

'So much rain
that it broke all records.

'Two record-breaking years
back-to-back is unheard of
in this part of the world.'

..the dew points are going to be
a little higher...

'We have 100 years
of climate history in Lubbock.'

In those 100 years we've never had
this steep oscillation
from one year to the next.

Something is impacting our natural
variabilities we have every year.

'Over the years, the weather here
naturally swings between wet

'and dry.

'But the swing has never been
this extreme -

'rewriting the record books
in the space of 12 months.

'So how can it be record-breaking
wet AND dry

'at virtually the same time?'

Our planet has warmed by almost
one degree Celsius over 100 years.

A tiny change in temperature.

How could that make a difference?

That temperature change,
in and of itself,
makes no difference to our lives.

It makes a huge difference
to what we're used to.

'The weather here has all
the hallmarks of global weirding.

'It may not rain as often

'or as regularly,

'which makes droughts possible.

'But when it does rain...'

THUNDER BOOMS

'..it's heavier

'and more intense.'

One of the changes we've seen

is that the average humidity
of our planet has increased by 4%.

Warmer air holds more water vapour.

So, on average,
our atmosphere is 4% more humid

than it used to be
30 or 40 years ago.

What does this mean for us
in west Texas?

Our humidity's 10%, probably,
so we don't feel that so much here.

But what happens is there's more
water vapour in the atmosphere.

So when storms come through, there's
more water to pick up and dump.

CLAP OF THUNDER

'It's these storms, or lack of them,

'that trigger the extreme dry
and wet weather in west Texas.

'In the future, scientists expect
this pattern of drought and flooding

'to be played out across the planet.

'It's the small change
in average temperature that's behind

'the predicted increase
in some extreme weather events.

'Scientists believe
it's all a question of balance.

'As the Earth struggles for
climate stability,

'the weather begins to get extreme.

'And weird.'

Our planet's a really complex place.

So as we increase
the temperature of our planet,

we are changing the dynamics of
our atmosphere, the way our weather
systems move across the country.

We're changing... Our sub-tropical
zones are expanding.

Our dry areas of the world
are growing.

We are changing how water
gets distributed around our planet.

Places that are dry
are getting drier. Places that are
wet are getting wetter.

Extremes are getting stronger
in both directions.

'Whether this warming is natural
or man-made,

'as the vast majority of scientists
believe...

'..it's triggering global changes.

'And they are expected to play out
in Britain.

'This year's government report
on climate change risk

'says we are likely to see
more flooding on the one hand,

'and longer drier spells
on the other.

'The record-breaking rains
in Scotland last year

'and the worst spring drought ever
in parts of eastern England

'could be a taste of things to come.

'But the intriguing question is
the effect it might have been having

'on our winters.

'As Christmas 2009 approached,
Britain started to shiver.'

Yeah, it could be a record-breaking
cold night tonight...

'The cold went on, day after day.'

..temperatures are going to plunge
as the day goes on...

'It was the coldest winter
for 30 years.

'Just a year later,
records were being broken again.

'December 2010 was the coldest
for over 100 years.'

..brought to a standstill
as heavy snow continues to fall...

'The weather was so brutal,

'Heathrow Airport was closed at one
of the busiest times of the year.'

..the temperature's set to plummet
even further...

'But how was this possible

'when the world was supposed to be
getting warmer, not colder?

'The British weather is so
complicated, has so many variables

'that scientists believe that really
understanding what was going on

'was well nigh impossible.

'But that didn't deter the weather
experts at the Met Office.'

The view in my research group
is that we shouldn't give up on this

because there are key pieces of
this puzzle that may be predictable.

It's our job to squeeze
as much predictability

out of the climate system as we can,

so that we can advise people
about the possibility of extremes.

'There's a number of clues
to unravel in this mystery.

'They lie buried away
in the Arctic...

'..in the long history of the sun...

'..and, possibly,
the contents of this case.

'This is a Stradivarius violin.'

PLAYS MELODY

'They are the most expensive violins
in the world.

'They're worth so much
because they have a unique sound.'

They have an incredible singing
quality and also incredible depth

and richness.

I think they reach closer than
any instrument to the human voice,

which touches people.

'The body of this violin
has a remarkable connection
to the weather.

'Stradivarius violins are defined,
in part,

'by the exceptionally
fine-grained wood they're made from.

'This violin was made in 1721,

'nearly 300 years ago.

'The comparison with the grain
of a 20th-century tree is startling.

'Intrigued, scientists in America
have conducted a series of tests,

'which seem to suggest that the
unique sound of the Stradivarius

'is down, in some ways,

'to the fine-grained wood
they're made from.'

I think that's extremely
interesting. That's fascinating.

I have thought about
the quality of the wood,

but not particularly
the closeness of the grain.

It does make sense.

A lot of the violins from
the golden period of Stradivarius

have this very tight grain.

'Whatever the truth about why the
Stradivarius sounds so beautiful,

'the fact is,
trees grow slowly in the cold.

'So the closer the grain,

'the colder it was.

'The fine grain on this instrument

'is evidence that the climate
at the time was freakishly cold.

'But what caused this bout
of extreme winters 300 years ago?

'Could the same thing be responsible
for the record-breaking winters
of the last few years in Britain?

'Solar scientist Mike Lockwood

'went looking for clues
in the most obvious place.

'The sun.

'The sun's energy
exerts the most important influence
on the Earth's climate.

'It defines the seasons,
creates weather patterns

'and drives the oceans' currents.

'And it's what was happening
to the sun 300 years ago

'that's brought him
to the River Thames and
the crucible of British science.'

We're just coming up to Greenwich
on the river here.

Greenwich is a really important
place in the history of science.

It was the first ever
purpose-built laboratory,

built to solve
the longitude problem.

But they did other things as well.

They observed the sun.

They made a great sequence of data

that's incredibly useful
for understanding the sun.

'Hidden away in the dusty archives

'were tantalising clues
that would help Mike understand

'what was happening
to our nearest star.

'Because 300 years ago,
men of science

'were carefully observing
the face of the sun.

'The records show

'that they were mystified by
something they hadn't seen before.

'The sun's spots, which they had
known about for years,

'seemed to have
unexpectedly vanished.'

Initially, it was thought
this was because people weren't
looking properly at that time.

As more and more observers' records
were found, it became quite clear

that wasn't the case,
there just weren't spots there.

People carried on looking for
sun spots for 50 years,

despite the fact
they hardly ever appeared.

Those records are invaluable
because they tell us about
the state of the sun 300 years ago.

'Sun spots are important

'because scientists now know that
they can affect the British climate.

'The sun's spots,
shown here in white,

'come and go on an 11-year cycle.

'When there are no spots,

'when solar activity is low,

'there is a reduction in the amount
of ultraviolet light

'hitting the Earth.

'Low solar activity has the
potential to disrupt the jet stream

'and the flow of warm air
over Britain,

'allowing the wind to blow
cold winter air from the east.'

Our work suggests that,
statistically,

if you have low solar activity you
will get more of these cold winters.

It seems to be a phenomenon
that's very much prevalent in Europe

but not really so significant
anywhere else.

'But 300 years ago, the sun's spots
didn't just vanish for a few years

'in the 11-year cycle.

'They disappeared
for two generations.

'The impact on Britain's winter
weather was recorded by 17th-century
weathermen all over the country.

'This period coincided

'with a series of exceptionally cold
winters in Britain.

'The Thames froze over and
frost fairs were held on the river.

'The period from 1650 to 1700 has
become known as the Little Ice Age.

'In fact, the coldest winter
ever recorded

'was in 1683-84.'

It's interesting to see the care

with which things are recorded,
but also the colourful language
people use

that we don't use nowadays.

"Profound cold" is wording
that we can't use
in a modern scientific paper,

but actually means quite a lot.

'So why did the sun's spots
disappear for 50-odd years?

'To answer that question, Mike had
to go back even further in time,

'back before the beginning
of civilisation.

'One of the best places to get that
long view of the history of the sun

'is in ice.

'He and his fellow scientists
analysed ice cores

'because they contain a signature

'of what's been happening to the sun
over thousands of years.'

We can effectively
look back in time.

Roughly speaking,
there are 20 to 30 grand maxima

and grand minima in the 9,000 years
that we can look at.

'So what the ice showed

'was something
nobody could have predicted.

'The sun had a secret rhythm.

'As well as an 11-year time frame,

'it also operated
on a much longer timescale -

'the grand solar cycle,

'averaging every 300 years or so.

'And Mike Lockwood's
ground-breaking research

'helped explain what was happening
in the 17th century.

'Because that was a time
of a grand solar minimum,

'where UV light
would be at its lowest.

'Not just for years,

'but decades.

'And that would create
the conditions to allow the wind

'to blow from the east -

'leading to frost fairs

'and the production
of beautiful violins.

'Could that help explain
the recent cold winters?

'Have we reached another
grand solar minimum?

'The answer was a convincing...

'..no.'

We seem to be coming out of
a grand maximum of solar activity.

And we will, past experience
tells us, go into a grand minimum.

It's just a question of how soon.
It could be as little as 40 years.

It could take
a couple of hundred years.

But the long-term record
from cosmogenic isotopes tell us

that it will, eventually,
go back into a grand minimum again.

'We now know for sure
that it wasn't the grand solar cycle
that was responsible for Britain

'shivering through
two record-breaking cold winters.

'Of course,
the end of the regular 11-year cycle

'combined with other natural
weather factors, played a part

'in these record-breaking winters.

'But some experts didn't think
that was enough.

'Something was missing.

'Over the last few years,

'climate scientists from around the
world have been trying to figure out

'what might have been happening.

'One of the leading lights
of that group is Dr Adam Scaife.

'He and his team have been
accumulating and analysing

'mountains of weather data.

'Weirdly, they believe the answer
to the problem lies in the Arctic.

'Even weirder,

'they think the warming of
the Arctic may be holding the key.

'But how can it be getting warmer in
the Arctic, yet colder in Britain?'

If you melt the Arctic ice,

you might think that would give
warmer conditions further afield.

For example, over Europe.

It is, indeed, true
that when you reduce the ice

that lets lots of heat
out of the ocean, so in the Arctic,

you see several degrees of warming
in the lower part of the atmosphere.

'And there's little doubt that it's
been getting warmer in the Arctic.

'In the last ten years, the sea ice
has reached record low levels.

'According to the Met Office's
sophisticated computer models,

'a hotter Arctic doesn't equal
a warmer Britain.'

That warming that's happening over
the Arctic is not seen over Europe.

The reason is
because the circulation changes,
the wind changes.

When you remove the Arctic ice,

the winds become more easterly.

The winds start to circulate
from east to west around the Arctic

and south of the Arctic, and that
dominates the response over Europe.

So instead of warming in the winter
over Europe when the ice is depleted

we get cooling because
we're dragging the air from Siberia
over northern Europe.

'They're still trying
to understand the mechanism
that produces this effect,

'but when you add this new factor to
variables like the sun's solar cycle

'what happened to our winters
starts to make sense.

'And perhaps what's even weirder
is that as the world gets warmer,

'some bits of it can get colder.'

Of course, Europe and the UK
is only one region of the globe.

There are many other regions,
and when you average those up

you still see warming.

So the fact that Europe is cold
and the US is cold at the same time,

is balanced by the fact that Canada
and the Mediterranean tend
to be milder in those winters.

When you integrate up this change in
the winds, the extra easterly winds,

when you average it over
the whole globe, it cancels out.

Global warming
can continue unaffected,

but the regional temperatures
over, say, UK and Europe,

can go down, at least for
a few years, as the globe warms up.

Even though, in the end,
global warming will, of course, win,
if we continue on that trend.

'This is why,
as the world gets warmer,

'it makes sense to talk about
the weather getting weirder.

'It affects different parts
of the planet in different ways.

'But every extreme weather event
isn't an example of global weirding.

'Freak weather still happens.

'The difference is, in the future,
there's likely to be more of it.

'The dice are now being loaded.'

Dice are a great way to picture

what climate change
is doing to our world.

We always have a chance of rolling
that six, whether it's extreme heat

or record-setting rainfall,
or the longest drought on record.

That could happen naturally.

What climate change is doing
is, one by one,

taking those sixes,
those weather extremes,

and adding a few more to the dice.

So now our chances
of a record-breaking heatwave
are twice what they used to be.

Our chances of record-setting
rainfall events have increased,

relative to the last 50 years.

We'll never know if that six
we roll, that extreme weather event,

is the natural one
or the climate change one.

But we do know that the chances of
rolling those sixes are increasing.

'More extreme weather
appears to be the new normal.

'So what, if anything,
can we do about it?

'One strategy is on display here,
in Holland.

'It's not exactly visible.

'Half the country lies
below sea level,

'which makes it vulnerable
to weather extremes.

'Not surprisingly,

'they've come up with a few
clever solutions to the problem.

'This car park
in the city of Rotterdam

'might look like any ordinary
car park,

'but hidden away
in the bowels of the building

'is an unusual approach
to dealing with the consequences
of weather weirding.

'There's nothing to advertise
where it is.

'Access is through
this nondescript door.

'Inside, it looks like a series
of interlinked concrete bunkers.

'This man has created something
that's dark, cold and functional.'

What we saw in the last years

is that we had an increased amount
of heavy rainfall events.

With these heavy rainfall events,

the centre of the city
has water problems.

'If the weather gets weird
in the streets above,

'it can be dealt with
at the press of a button...

'..that pulls a plug
in the sewer system

'and the excess floodwater
is siphoned off down here.

'For Daniel Goedbloed, the man who
designed and built these bunkers,

'they're an essential element
in the city's defence

'against the new weather extremes.'

We had streets flooding,
basements flooding.

We had the canals
more or less overflowing.

So we calculated how much extra
storage we needed in the city centre

just to face this problem
of extra rainwater.

'This space is big enough to deal
with ten million litres of water,

'enough to cope with the worst flood
in a century.

'The whole project
cost 11 million euros,

'about ten million pounds.

'But for Daniel and Rotterdam,
that's a small price to pay

'for the level of protection
it brings.'

Rainfall events are going
to increase, there are going to be
more heavy showers.

Over a year,
we're going to have less rainfall,

but it's going to come
in shorter amounts of time,
in heavier rain showers.

So we have to deal with this rain
water in a short amount of time.

Then you can just let it flow here
quickly, and store it.

'After the flood,

'the stored water can be released
back into the sewer system,

'and the tanks can be flushed
and cleaned -

'ready to deal with the worst of
the weather patterns of the future.

'But Rotterdam's adapting
to a wetter future

'in even more ingenious ways.

'They're so concerned about
flooding, that they're making plans

'not just to continue living
by the water,

'they actually think
it's possible to live on it.

'This futuristic looking building

'is floating in the city's
docklands area.'

It's a pilot,

and a sort of showcase to show to
the people floating constructions.

Floating living and working
is possible. It's really stable.

I think in Rotterdam, in the heart
of the city, there's an opportunity

to make new city parks

with a nice way for living
and working possibilities.

'Most of the world's biggest cities
are built near water.

'The Dutch think their plan
to fill this dockland area

'with a raft of these buildings

'could be a blueprint
for urban living in the future.'

We are now planning in this harbour
a new floating community.

The city has announced a competition

for international architects
to think about

this new floating community.

It could be a sort of new Venice.

'That's all well and good for small
rich countries like Holland,

'who can afford
to build the infrastructure to cope
with the future of weather extremes.

'However, there is another solution
that's more about brain than brawn.

'An example of that strategy

'had its finest hour when the future
of the world was in the balance.

'In a quiet corner of
the Met Office library hangs a map,

'probably the most famous
weather map in the world.

'It's the forecast for D-Day.

'It played a critical role in the
outcome of the Second World War.'

The weather forecast
might well have won the war.

They were trying to predict,
within a window of a few days,

with the right amount of moon,
the right tides,

as to whether the weather would be
flat enough for the landings.

The forecast was for this ridge
of high pressure

to move in across the western part
of the Channel.

As you can see, it hadn't got
quite as far in as was expected.

So conditions weren't perfect,

but they knew that if they didn't go
at the beginning of June,

they'd have to wait another month.

'If this forecast was wrong,
the consequences could have been
catastrophic.

'So it's no exaggeration to say
that the D-Day weather forecast

'didn't just help to change
the course of history,

'it also saved countless lives.

'And getting an accurate forecast
is vital in our new weather future,

'because the hope is prediction
will lead to protection.'

The point of the weather forecast,

when you get down
to the nitty-gritty,

is getting extreme weather events -
heavy rainfall, high temperatures -

the forecasts for those spot-on

so people can get correct warnings
in the right timescales

so they can take precautions
to save themselves, if they need to.

'And the one thing forecasters have
managed to improve over the years

'is the accuracy of the forecast.

'The five-day forecast is now
as accurate as the one-day forecast
was 30 years ago.

'That could be vital in a future
predicted to be dominated
by extreme weather events.

'The technological development
that's driven the improved accuracy

'floats thousands of miles above us.

'Satellites.'

We've got so much more information
because of all the satellites.

You need to know what's going on
globally to get a good forecast

of what's going to happen in the UK
for the next five days.

You can't do it without global
coverage. Satellites have given us
that global coverage.

'Satellites provide huge amounts
of information

'about the world's most extreme
weather events.

'But making sense of them...

'..requires one of these.

'This is the Met Office's
computer behemoth.

'It only came online
three years ago.

'It can do 100 trillion calculations
a second.

'That's the equivalent
of 100,000 PCs.

'It makes it one of the biggest
number crunchers in the world.'

We need that power.

We've got millions of observations
coming in every day.

It's also trying to calculate
what the weather's going to be like
on that grid around the globe

up to five days ahead and beyond.

We use the same model that we do
our day-to-day forecasts on

for our climate forecasts
hundreds of years into the future.

'And that computing power could be a
vital weapon in the coming struggle

'with global weather extremes.

'Allowing the Met Office to develop
new kinds of weather forecasts.'

The big new idea in climate science

is not just to look at
the distant future 100 years ahead.

That's very important.
It tells us what road we're on.

But in the near term, on planning
timescales years or months ahead,

when people make real decisions,

the big thing is to increase
the skill of the forecast
on those timescales.

Maybe give some warning weeks or
months ahead of impending extremes.

Perhaps even unprecedented extremes.
That's what we're trying to do.

'The new science of weather extremes
highlights the profound links

'between our climate
and the way we live.

'It also underlines just
how vulnerable our civilisation is.'

We're playing a kind of
dangerous game with the climate.

The last 7,000 or 8,000 years

has been a remarkably
stable climate.

Very unusual in the last two million
years of Earth's climate history.

It was during that time
that human civilisation developed.

So we should be clear
about something.

Climate change, whether it's natural
or we're doing it,

is no danger to the planet.

The planet has gone through
much worse. The danger is to us.

Our civilisation developed
in a very unusually stable climate,

and it's very well adapted
to that climate.

We change it - again, whether
the change is natural or man-made -

it's going to cause dislocations
and problems.

'However we choose to deal
with global weather extremes,

'be it protection or prediction,
one thing is clear -

'the world has changed.'

The past is no longer
a guide to the future.

The average conditions
that we grew up with.
It's not the same as 30 years ago.

Events that used to be random and
extreme are becoming more frequent

and more severe.

We're living in a different world
than the one we grew up in.

We have to adapt to those changes.

Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd